Judge them by their actions.

1. Judge them by their actions: Conservatives believe the US should have a weak military.
2. Judge them by their actions: Conservatives don't believe in fiscal responsibility.
3. Judge them by their actions: Conservatives are constitutional constructionists only when the constitution agrees with them.

The Surge is working. End of August Edition

So the pattern of casualties continues to map to the seasons. Who want's to bet that we won't be hearing about how casualty rates are down from the start of the surge.


For anyone needing data to address the claim that Iranian IED's are killing our troops with increasing frequency:


Just tell em: "It ain't so!" and show them the numbers.

Are Iraniam IED's Killing our troops?

ThinkProgress has an excellent piece here on Michael Gordon's latest hack piece on the Iraq war in which he regurgitates the adinistration propoganda about Iran killing our troops in Iraq. His claim is that our troops are being killed by Iranian made IED's. As Evidence he writes

General Odierno said Iran was increasing its support to Shiite militants in Iraq to step up the military pressure on the United States at a time when the Congress is debating whether to withdraw American troops.

“I think it is because the Iranians are surging support to the special groups,” he said, referring to the American name for Iranian-backed cells here. “Over the last three to four months, it has picked up in terms of equipment, training and dollars.”

If this were so you would expect to be seeing an increase in IED casualties this year compared to last. However, we see exactly the opposite, while we continue to see an increase in overall casualties this year by about 25%. Here are the IED casuulties trend lines.

As you can see the proportion of casualties attributable to IEDs is falling rapidly since May.

If the Iranian's have been providing a large supply of these devices it looks like they have been doing us a favor by supplying duds. Perhaps we should thank them for the declining rates.

The Surge is not working: July Edition

In a previous post I discuses one of the ways we are getting set up for claims that the surge is working. We're already starting to hear these claims but BushCo is hoping to by time before he declares success. In Sept he will point to dramatically lowered rates of casualties among coalition forces. They know he'll be able to do this because the casualty rates ALWAYS FALL IN THE SUMMER. Here is an update to one of the charts in the earlier piece shown that this pattern is continuing. Once you account for the higher baseline brought on by the surge, the curves are almost identical.I'll update this every couple of weeks but you can see where this is going. When we start to hear how the violence is down we can be ready to respond:

Update to end of July



Of course it's down stupid, it's always down in summer. Your saying the surge caused the summer?