Wednesday, August 1, 2007

The Surge is not working: July Edition

In a previous post I discuses one of the ways we are getting set up for claims that the surge is working. We're already starting to hear these claims but BushCo is hoping to by time before he declares success. In Sept he will point to dramatically lowered rates of casualties among coalition forces. They know he'll be able to do this because the casualty rates ALWAYS FALL IN THE SUMMER. Here is an update to one of the charts in the earlier piece shown that this pattern is continuing. Once you account for the higher baseline brought on by the surge, the curves are almost identical.I'll update this every couple of weeks but you can see where this is going. When we start to hear how the violence is down we can be ready to respond:

Update to end of July

Of course it's down stupid, it's always down in summer. Your saying the surge caused the summer?


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